Shipping enters 2026 with a sense of readjustment and uncertainty. After a long period of detours on major shipping routes and hard-to-fix costs, the industry is beginning to resume its plans looking at three factors that could change the course of the year: the gradual return of Red Sea transit, the trade boost from the EU-Mercosur agreement and new U.S. tariffs that reintroduce noise into global supply chains.
The gradual return to the Red Sea
For months, much of the traffic between Asia and Europe has been diverted by longer routes due to attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea. In 2026, the major shipping lines have taken the step of resuming transit through the Suez Canal, although without taking for granted that the risk has disappeared. The World Shipping Council has pointed out that there are signs of a cautious return and operational tests, but insists that the situation must remain stable for this return to be progressive.
If this pathway is finally consolidated again, it will shorten the The new system will also increase the effective capacity of the fleet, as ships will spend fewer days sailing long routes. In addition, it will also increase the effective capacity of the fleet, as ships will spend fewer days sailing long routes. But there is an important nuance: if many services cut their times at once, some of that cargo may arrive more concentrated and in less time at its destination, which would open the door to hypothetical congestion in southern European ports .
EU-Mercosur: new trade opportunities
The second major movement is commercial. On January 17, the European Union and Mercosur signed the Association Agreement, a pact to build bridges for trade between the two blocs by progressively reducing barriers and tariffs.
Beyond politics, the effect on maritime transport is clear: the agreement can strengthen flows between Europe and South America and bring greater predictability to volumes. Among the sectors most involved are agri-food (meat, soybeans, sugar, coffee, fruit), refrigerated products (reefer), the chemical industry and industrial components linked to automotive and machinery.
New tariffs from the United States
And the third piece comes from Washington and focuses on tariffs. The White House has announced tariffs of 10% from February 1, 2026 on imports from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland, with the possibility of raising them later.
In maritime transport, even before the effects are seen in customs, this type of measure usually leads to early or frozen purchases, renegotiation of contracts and changes of origin and destination to avoid high costs. The EU is already debating responses and adding further pressure to a chessboard that in 2026 will once again move to the rhythm of geopolitics.
